Goal: ₹5,000
CMP: ₹3,512.80
Income for Q3-FY25 got here at ₹6,960 crore (vs consensus estimates of ₹7,010 crore), up 14.8 per cent y-o-y and up 16.4 per cent q-o-q. EBIDTA for Q3-FY25 got here at ₹1,680 crore (vs consensus estimates ₹1,710 crore), up 17.2 per cent y-o-y and up 2.6 per cent q-o-q. The EBITDA Margin got here at 24.2 per cent, improved 50 bps y-o-y and contracted 326 bps q-o-q (vs CEBPL estimates of 24.4 per cent).
PAT for Q3-FY25 got here ₹1,440 crore (vs consensus estimates of ₹1,320 crore), up 14.1 per cent y-o-y and down 4.7 per cent. PAT Margin decreased by 12 bps y-o-y and 458 bps q-o-q, reaching 20.7 per cent (vs selection’s estimates of 18.8 per cent).
We challenge HAL Income, EBITDA, and PAT to develop at a CAGR of 13 per cent, 12 per cent and 11.3 per cent, respectively, over FY24-27E. In consequence, now we have revised our earnings estimates for FY26E and FY27E, reducing EPS projections by 2.8 per cent and a couple of.2 per cent, respectively attributable to delays in F404-IN20 commonplace engine.
Based mostly on these changes, we preserve our “Purchase” advice and revise our goal value to ₹5,000, implying a valuation of 32x FY27E EPS (Earlier 35x). We are going to carefully monitor execution progress, and any enchancment within the GE F404-IN20 variant engine supply timeline may result in a reassessment of our goal value and valuation multiples.
